A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
