Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
